Green Light with Chris Long Newsletter

"Like Moses, I'm gonna die leaning on my staff" - Jim Harbaugh

Week 3 Preview Show

We had a lot of fun yesterday previewing week 3 in the NFL. Doctor Fax and Chris went through all of the matchups this weekend. Macon and Steve joined to give their locks for the week. We also had Joey Bosa from the LA Chargers on the show. That interview will be up on YouTube later this afternoon; he told a story about Jim Harbaugh that you won’t want to miss. I was grateful that Thursday Night Football was a blowout. Turning the game off at halftime gave me just enough time to see the first episode of The Penguin and drool over Shohei Ohtani’s epic performance.

Beau’s Butter Breakdowns

Beau has two new Butter Breakdowns for you all to check out. He goes in depth and breaks down the film on Aidan Hutchinson and Ed Oliver.

5 Picks Against The Spread (6-4 Season Record) 

Last week was almost so good. Went 3-2 on picks, but the two losses were both by half a point. Luckily for me the line moved on Sunday when I actually placed the bets. So I won my five team parlay with two pushes, and had a profitable Sunday. On Monday I was locked in on the Eagles, but made a last minute decision to just stay away from the game after I saw 90% of the money was coming in on the Eagles. I live in a household where betting against the Eagles would create issues, so just sitting it out felt like a win. 

Chris has been talking a lot about his 7-3 start in the weekly locks. I would really like to overtake him this weekend. Here’s my five bets against the spread for this weekend.

Raiders -5 at home against the Panthers. I will continue betting against the Panthers until they are double digit dogs. Benching Bryce Young should help their offense, but are we really expecting Andy Dalton to go out there and light up a solid Raiders defense? The good news is that the line moved based on the news, this line was around 7 earlier in the week. The Panthers are historically bad, I’m not overthinking this one. 

Seahawks -4.5 at home against the Dolphins. Skylar Thompson will be starting for the Dolphins and he was decent in his two starts in 2022, the question is can Mike McDaniel create a game plan to protect him like Matt LaFleur did last week for Malik Willis? The Seahawks might be without Kenneth Walker II, but the Dolphins pass rush is anemic. Look for Geno to air it out to his weapons on the outside and not feel a lot of heat in the pocket. 

Bears +1.5 on the road against the Colts. The Colts have a big problem, they have the league’s worst rush defense and just lost their best defensive lineman DeForest Buckner. Chicago needs to commit to running the ball as they try to make things easier on Caleb Williams. D’Andre Swift only has 48 yards on the season so far, look for him to put up 100+ on Sunday. As for the Colts offense, Anthony Richardson takes a few too many gambles with his throws. The Chicago defense forcing a turnover will be a big part of the recipe for a road win. 

Packers +2.5 over the Titans. The Packers shouldn’t be able to just run the ball every time like they did against the Colts last week, but Malik Willis looked solid and should have some easy pass opportunities as the Titans load the box to stop the run. This bet is more about Will Levis. I want to have money on the other side when he makes his next befuddling decision with the ball. If the Packers can go 2-0 without Jordan Love, it shows that this is a team that can win it all. 

Steelers -1.5 at home against the Chargers. These are the two best defenses in the league so far in terms of scoring, and both offenses look totally revamped from last season. The Chargers are running the ball behind JK Dobbins and a nasty offensive line bookended by Rashawn Slater and the excellent rookie Joe Alt. We were fortunate to have Joey Bosa on the show yesterday, so be sure to check out that interview when it comes out later this afternoon. I like both of these teams, and expect to see both of them in the playoff picture at the end of the season. In what should be a low scoring affair, I like the odds of Justin Fields making a big play happen.

Appreciating Greatness 

Shohei Ohtani

Can we all take a moment to just stop and appreciate greatness. I’m betting most of you saw Shohei Ohtani establish the 50/50 club last night. 50 stolen bases and 50 home runs in one season is one of the greatest single season achievements in the history of sports. But Ohtani wasn’t satisfied with having the greatest season of all time, he also decided to go out and have the greatest game of all time. He went 6-6 with three home runs, two doubles, two stolen bases and 10 RBI’s in the Dodgers 20-4 win over the Marlins that clinched a postseason berth for the Dodgers. Even the road fans gave him a curtain call. Al Michaels even brought him up during Thursday Night Football. Try to think of the last time an NFL announcer voluntarily brought up baseball on a live broadcast. Shohei is transcending the sport and keeping baseball in the conversation. I’m excited to see him play in the postseason. I also love the fact that he dealt with people speculating whether or not he was a gambling addict; it made the Michael Jordan comparison even easier. 

Magnus Carlsen

Last night in Budapest FIDE celebrated 100 years as Chess’ governing body. They took a vote on the greatest player of all time, and awarded living legend Magnus Carlsen with the award. Magnus is the highest rated player of all time, but comparing players of different eras is complicated. There were really only three options: Bobby Fischer, Garry Kasparov, and Magnus. Bobby Fischer was an intensely selfish recluse and a rabid antisemite who perpetuated the notion that there is an overlap between genius and insanity. Fischer was also the most dominant relative to his competition at the time, but it makes sense for voters to go in another direction. 

Debating Kasparov vs. Carlsen is like debating Jordan vs. Lebron, but one cool thing is they did actually play against each other when Magnus was thirteen. Kasparov has retired from chess and entered the political realm as a dissident of the Russian government. That government has labeled him a terrorist and issued a warrant for his arrest, but Kasparov continues to speak out against their corrupt regime as he lives in exile. He led the charge to have the Russian Federation expelled from Fide.  Last night when Magnus received the award, he said, “I think Garry has had a better chess career.” Throughout the controversy over Russia’s expulsion, Magnus has mostly stayed out of the discussion, but as he accepted the award he added, “I would say, at least in Garry’s honor, I am sure that he would take the opportunity to advise against reinstating the Russian and Belarusian Chess Federations, so that is what I would do as well. Thank you.” Kasparov responded that it is not required to have great character to be a great chess player, which is what makes Magnus doubly impressive. It is awesome for the face of the game to put a different spin on the manifestation of genius. Magnus’ magnanimity magnifies the reality that genius isn’t inherently corrosive to one’s humanity. 

The Chalk: All Odds From Bet MGM

Macon: BYU +7

Nate: Got a five team parlay for you all, and I hope you tailed me last night on my Allen Lazard first td bet. Texans under 24.5 points, Giants +6.5, Saints moneyline, Josh Jacobs over 75.5 rushing yards, Colts moneyline. (+1724) 

Ralph: Texas team total over 48.5

Kingston: Syracuse is going to blow out Stanford tonight and easily cover the 8.5 point spread. 

Reid: White Sox to beat the Padres but hit the under (7).

Kevin: Navy +9.5 tomorrow against Memphis. 

What We’re Watching:

Macon: Industry is the best show on television, and just like that(!), we find ourselves on the doorstep of the penultimate episode of the season. Add in Slow Horses. 

Nate: I’ve been watching Outlast on Netflix. I just finished Season 1 and have already started season 2. It’s like the show Alone, but they put the contestants into teams which adds some drama. 

Ralph: Watching Selling Sunset because these women are delusional. 

Kingston: Macon is 100% right about Industry; I was squirming in my seat Sunday during another captivating confrontation. Last night I watched the premiere of The Penguin on MAX; it was worth watching if you liked the most recent Batman movie. 

Reid: The leaves turn colors. Going to be pretty over the next few weeks no matter where you are on the earth. Make sure to get outside and enjoy it.

Kevin: I’ve been watching Gangs of London. It is a little slow, but definitely worth the watch. 

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